You’ve seen the headlines: “Canada Post Delays Persist After Holiday Rush” or “Backlogs Expected to Clear Soon.” But let’s get real—what they’re not telling you is that without a monumental increase in the workforce or freezing incoming shipments, catching up is about as likely as winning the lottery without buying a ticket. Let’s break it down because the math doesn’t lie, and neither should they.
The Numbers Don’t Lie—They Scream
Let’s assume, Canada Post processes about 100,000 international packages a day. Sounds impressive, right? Sure, but they’re only built to handle 80% of that daily volume, so the math tells us a respectable 80,000 packages/day. On a normal day, that leaves a shortfall of 20,000 packages, which is manageable… until it isn’t.
Okay, hear it comes, like a snowball in the face, just imagine the beast that emerges when the system shuts down for almost 30 days—say, during a strike, and add the annual Christmas chaos. While the team is home sipping cocoa, those packages don’t just politely wait; they pile up. Do the math: 3 million packages accumulate in a month, and the hits keep coming—another 100,000 every day after they reopen.
So, when they finally started dealing with the international packages on Dec 23rd and announced, “We’re back!” they were staring at a potential mountain of 4.4 million packages to process over the next two weeks if they hope to catch up. Would you like fries with that?
The Catch-Up Conundrum
Let’s talk logistics. To clear that backlog and keep up with daily arrivals in lets say 14 days which is the estimate being thrown about, Canada Post would need to process 314,000 packages a day—nearly FOUR TIMES their normal capacity. And here’s where the fantasy collapses: they’d need to triple their workforce overnight or discover a way to bend the laws of time and space.
But hey, why not just work harder, right? Wrong. Stretching the current team beyond capacity won’t fix the problem—it’ll create a new one: serious quality issues. Lost packages, mishandled deliveries, and crushed contents become the new normal when workers are rushing like contestants on a game show.
What They’re Not Telling You
Canada Post isn’t coming clean about the harsh reality. Without a radical intervention—like stopping the clock on new deliveries or significantly boosting their workforce—this backlog isn’t going anywhere. Here’s what you’re not being told (Math does not lie):
- The Workforce Problem: You’d need three additional fully staffed processing teams—or their equivalent in automation—to hit the numbers required to catch up in 14 days. That’s assuming they don’t burn out their existing workforce in the process.
- The Financial Cost: Doubling or tripling staff isn’t free. Neither is the equipment, overtime, or potential automation upgrades required to make this pipe dream a reality. Somebody’s paying for this—spoiler: it’s you.
- The Quality Risk: Every step skipped to speed up processing increases the likelihood of errors. A mishandled delivery might ruin someone’s small business or holiday plans. Multiply that by millions, and you have a recipe for disaster.
The Pipe Dream of Catching Up
Here’s the kicker: catching up while maintaining quality is almost impossible under current conditions. They’d need to pause incoming shipments entirely or conjure up resources that simply don’t exist. Without these drastic measures, the backlog grows, stress skyrockets, and public trust erodes. This isn’t just a logistical problem; it’s a public relations time bomb.
What Needs to Happen
So, what should Canada Post do? Here are some hard truths:
- Admit the Problem: Transparency is key. Tell Canadians the truth about what’s happening and what’s required to fix it.
- Freeze Incoming Deliveries: Hit pause to allow time to clear the backlog. It’s drastic but necessary.
- Bring in the Calvary: Hire more workers, fast. If that means raising prices or eating some costs, so be it.
The Workforce Paradox: What If Canada Post Clears the Backlog Without More Workers?
Let’s entertain the possibility for a moment. What if Canada Post somehow clears the estimated Everest of 4.4 million package backlog in two weeks without adding a single new worker? That might sound like a win, but let’s not pop the champagne just yet. If they can magically triple their daily output without missing a beat, then we have a whole new set of questions to ask—ones that Canada Post might not want to answer.
Are They Underworking in Normal Times?
If the current workforce, under normal conditions, processes 80,000 packages a day but suddenly finds the ability to process 314,000 a day during a crisis, it raises a glaring issue:
What’s happening during normal operations?
Are they running at only a fraction of their true capacity? If so, why? Are there inefficiencies baked into the system? Are workers being stretched out to make tasks last longer than they should? Or worse, is this an intentional choice to avoid exposing operational inefficiencies that only become apparent under stress?
The math doesn’t lie: either they’ve been underutilizing their workforce all along, or their staff is suddenly capable of superhuman effort when the pressure is on. Neither scenario looks good for Canada Post.
Canada Post isn’t just up against a backlog; they’re up against reality. Without radical changes, this problem will fester, quality will nosedive, and Canadians will be left asking why their packages are circling the drain. The choice is clear: stop pretending this is business as usual, or watch as public trust evaporates like snow on a sunny day.
The Final Piece: Questions That Demand Answers
Let’s put the cards on the table. If Canada Post miraculously clears this backlog without adding a single worker, we should all be paying very close attention. Why? Because this isn’t just about logistics; it’s about the bottom line of an organization that has been hemorrhaging hundreds of millions of dollars a year. Suddenly, the losses start to look less like an unavoidable reality and more like a symptom of deeper inefficiencies.
Could They Be Overstaffed by a Factor of Three?
Think about it: if they can handle three times the normal workload without breaking a sweat, then one uncomfortable possibility looms large—Canada Post may be massively overstaffed. Maybe it’s not about inefficiency or outdated systems. Maybe it’s as simple as this: they have more people than they need to get the job done. And if that’s the case, it’s not just a management problem—it’s a national problem.
For years, Canadians have been footing the bill for Canada Post’s deficits. Every time the cost of a stamp goes up or package rates increase, we’re told it’s necessary to keep the lights on. But if they’ve been operating with a workforce that’s double or even triple what’s actually needed, then someone has some serious explaining to do.
Watch This Space
One way or another, the truth is going to come out. If Canada Post fails to catch up, it’s a sign they were never equipped to handle this kind of disruption—an indictment of their leadership and planning. But if they do catch up without a hitch, the spotlight turns to their year-round operations. Why aren’t they running at full steam all the time? Why are taxpayers subsidizing inefficiency? And most importantly, why are they losing hundreds of millions of dollars if they have the capacity to do so much more?
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